Christopher A. Sims, James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson
This paper considers estimation and hypothesis testing in linear time series models when some or all of the variables have unit roots. Our motivating example is a vector autoregression with some unit roots in the companion matrix, which might include polynomials in time as regressors. In the general formulation, the variable might be integrated or cointegrated of arbitrary orders, and might have drifts as well. We show that parameters that can be written as coefficients on mean zero, nonintegrated regressors have jointly normal asymptotic distributions, converging at the rate $T^{1/2}$. In general, the other coefficients (including the coefficients on polynomials in time) will have nonnormal asymptotic distributions. The results provide a formal characterization of which $t$ or $F$ tests--such as Granger causality tests--will be asymptotically valid, and which will have nonstandard limiting distributions.
MLA
Sims, Christopher A., et al. “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots.” Econometrica, vol. 58, .no 1, Econometric Society, 1990, pp. 113-144, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938337
Chicago
Sims, Christopher A., James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson. “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots.” Econometrica, 58, .no 1, (Econometric Society: 1990), 113-144. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938337
APA
Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots. Econometrica, 58(1), 113-144. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938337
The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the submission fees for papers in Econometrica. Starting January 1, 2025, the fee for new submissions to Econometrica will be US$125 for regular members and US$50 for student members.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.