We create a novel reign‐level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state's performance.
MLA
Ottinger, Sebastian, and Nico Voigtländer. “History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance.” Econometrica, vol. 93, .no 1, Econometric Society, 2025, pp. 95-128, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20830
Chicago
Ottinger, Sebastian, and Nico Voigtländer. “History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance.” Econometrica, 93, .no 1, (Econometric Society: 2025), 95-128. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20830
APA
Ottinger, S., & Voigtländer, N. (2025). History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance. Econometrica, 93(1), 95-128. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20830
Supplement to "History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance"
Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13842200. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.
The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the submission fees for papers in Econometrica. Starting January 1, 2025, the fee for new submissions to Econometrica will be US$125 for regular members and US$50 for student members.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.