Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Jan, 2025, Volume 93, Issue 1

History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20830
p. 95-128

Sebastian Ottinger|Nico Voigtländer

We create a novel reign‐level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state's performance.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance"

Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "History's Masters The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance"

Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13842200. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.

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