It is well known that, in misspecified parametric models, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is consistent for the pseudo‐true value and has an asymptotically normal sampling distribution with “sandwich” covariance matrix. Also, posteriors are asymptotically centered at the MLE, normal, and of asymptotic variance that is, in general, different than the sandwich matrix. It is shown that due to this discrepancy, Bayesian inference about the pseudo‐true parameter value is, in general, of lower asymptotic frequentist risk when the original posterior is substituted by an artificial normal posterior centered at the MLE with sandwich covariance matrix. An algorithm is suggested that allows the implementation of this artificial posterior also in models with high dimensional nuisance parameters which cannot reasonably be estimated by maximizing the likelihood.
MLA
Müller, Ulrich K.. “Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models, and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica, vol. 81, .no 5, Econometric Society, 2013, pp. 1805-1849, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA9097
Chicago
Müller, Ulrich K.. “Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models, and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica, 81, .no 5, (Econometric Society: 2013), 1805-1849. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA9097
APA
Müller, U. K. (2013). Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models, and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 81(5), 1805-1849. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA9097
The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the submission fees for papers in Econometrica. Starting January 1, 2025, the fee for new submissions to Econometrica will be US$125 for regular members and US$50 for student members.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.