We propose a new theory of price rigidity based on firms' Knightian uncertainty about their competitive environment. This uncertainty has two key implications. First, firms learn about the shape of their demand function from past observations of quantities sold. This learning gives rise to kinks in the expected profit function at previously observed prices, making those prices both sticky and more likely to reoccur. Second, uncertainty about the relationship between aggregate and industry‐level inflation generates nominal rigidity. We prove the main insights analytically and quantify the effects of our mechanism. Our estimated quantitative model is consistent with a wide range of micro‐level pricing facts that are typically challenging to match jointly. It also implies significantly more persistent monetary non‐neutrality than in standard models, allowing it to generate large real effects from nominal shocks.
MLA
Ilut, Cosmin, et al. “Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty.” Econometrica, vol. 88, .no 5, Econometric Society, 2020, pp. 1899-1938, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14234
Chicago
Ilut, Cosmin, Rosen Valchev, and Nicolas Vincent. “Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty.” Econometrica, 88, .no 5, (Econometric Society: 2020), 1899-1938. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14234
APA
Ilut, C., Valchev, R., & Vincent, N. (2020). Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty. Econometrica, 88(5), 1899-1938. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14234
Supplement to "Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty"
This zip file contains material not found within the manuscript. It also contains a supplemental appendix containing material not found within the manuscript.
The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the submission fees for papers in Econometrica. Starting January 1, 2025, the fee for new submissions to Econometrica will be US$125 for regular members and US$50 for student members.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.