For more than three decades, economic columnist Joseph A. Livingston has canvassed a panel of economists twice a year, eliciting their six-month and twelve-month forecasts for more than a dozen key variables. This study analyzes whether the experts' predictions are unbiased, and whether complete use was made of all relevant, known information (unbiasedness and completeness being necessary conditions for fully rational expectations). Little bias was found in either the half-year or full-year predictions, but extensive underutilization of information--particularly data on monetary growth--occurred.
MLA
Brown, Bryan W., and Shlomo Maital. “What do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations.” Econometrica, vol. 49, .no 2, Econometric Society, 1981, pp. 491-504, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913322
Chicago
Brown, Bryan W., and Shlomo Maital. “What do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations.” Econometrica, 49, .no 2, (Econometric Society: 1981), 491-504. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913322
APA
Brown, B. W., & Maital, S. (1981). What do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations. Econometrica, 49(2), 491-504. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913322
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.